"Zum Scheitern verurteilt"

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Scott Ritter, ehemaliger UN-Waffeninspektor, über die Zukunft der US-Besatzung:
"Regardless of the number of troops the United States puts on the ground or how long they stay there, Allawi's government is doomed to fail. The more it fails, the more it will have to rely on the United States to prop it up. The more the United States props up Allawi, the more discredited he will become in the eyes of the Iraqi people - all of which creates yet more opportunities for the Iraqi resistance to exploit.

We will suffer a decade-long nightmare that will lead to the deaths of thousands more Americans and tens of thousands of Iraqis. We will witness the creation of a viable and dangerous anti-American movement in Iraq that will one day watch as American troops unilaterally withdraw from Iraq every bit as ignominiously as Israel did from Lebanon."
Im gleichen Artikel argumentiert Ritter, dass der Widerstand im Irak (inklusive der islamistischen Gruppen!) von pro-Saddam Kräften angeführt werden würde. Das ist wenig glaubwürdig, wie dieser Artikel zeigt, der einen guten Überblick über die irakische Besatzung gibt:

There are roughly 25,000 resistance fighters participating in actions at least occasionally, according to Juan Cole, a professor of Middle East history at the University of Michigan and an expert on the Iraqi resistance. Cole suspects that, at most, 400 to 500 fighters are from outside Iraq--a tiny number compared to the homegrown Iraqi fighters.

Of those 25,000, a handful may profess loyalty to the now-captured Saddam Hussein. Under Saddam, Sunni Muslims, who make up roughly 20 percent of Iraq's population, were the most powerful group--while Iraq's Shiite population, which accounts for 60 percent of the population, was largely cut out of economic and political power.

But many resistance fighters in Sunni strongholds such as Falluja aren't really pro-Saddam as much as they are Iraqi nationalists who also identify with other victims of U.S. imperialism, such as Palestinian Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, who was assassinated by Israeli forces on March 22.

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