CIA-Analyse: US-Macht im Niedergang

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Eine vor kurzem veröffentlichte CIA-Analyse über Machtkonstellationen im Jahr 2020 offenbarrt Einsichten in die Geostrategie der USA. Aus Sicht der US-Strategen befinden wir uns in einer Zeit, in der, ähnlich dem Aufstieg des Deutschen Reichs Ende des 19. Jahrhunderts, neue imperiale Mächte die Bühne der Weltpolitik betreten und in der sich das Gesicht der internationalen Beziehungen schnell verändert.

The likely emergence of China and India, as well as others, as new major global players—similar to the advent of a united Germany in the 19th century and a powerful United States in the early 20th century—will transform the geopolitical landscape, with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries.

Die CIA-Analysten gehen davon aus, dass die Macht der USA stetig schrumpft, auch wenn sie weiterhin den mächtigsten Staat darstellen. "The United States (..) will see its relative power position eroded, though it will remain in 2020 the most important single country across all the dimensions of power." Der Aufstieg von China als eine führende Weltmacht gilt als so gut wie sicher:

In the same way that commentators refer to the 1900s as the “American Century,” the 21st century may be seen as the time when Asia, led by China and India, comes into its own. A combination of sustained high economic growth, expanding military capabilities, and large populations will be at the root of the expected rapid rise in economic and political power for both countries.

Das ist sicherlich keine neue Erkenntnis, aber sie wirft dennoch ein Licht auf das geostrategische Denken, das hinter der Invasion im Irak steht. Öl ist die wichtigste Ressource für die Wirtschaft eines jeden Landes. Wer diese Ressource kontrolliert, konntrolliert das wirtschaftliche Wachstum der aufstrebenden Staaten. Die CIA-Analyse geht davon aus, dass es einen immer schneller steigenden Ölbedarf gibt, dem "Unsicherheiten" in den Ölförderländern gegenüberstehen. Die Folge: Eine sich verschärfende Konkurrenz um die Ölressourcen:

"An expanding global economy will increase demand for many raw materials, such as oil. Total energy consumed probably will rise by about 50 percent in the next two decades compared to a 34 percent expansion from 1980-2000, with a greater share provided by petroleum. Most experts assess that with substantial investment in new capacity, overall energy supplies will be sufficient to meet global demands. But on the supply side, many of the areas—the Caspian Sea, Venezuela, and West Africa—that are being counted on to provide increased output involve substantial political or economic risk. Traditional suppliers in the Middle East are also increasingly unstable. Thus sharper demand-driven competition for resources, perhaps accompanied by a major disruption of oil supplies, is among the key uncertainties."

Es ist daher höchstwahrscheinlich, dass die Supermächte des 21. Jahrhunderts, China und die USA, zunehmend in einen Konkurrenzkampf um die Ölressourcen treten werden- auch im Nahen Osten.

China and India, which lack adequate domestic energy resources, will have to ensure continued access to outside suppliers; thus, the need for energy will be a major factor in shaping their foreign and defense policies, including expanding naval power.

Beijing’s growing energy requirements are likely to prompt China to increase its activist role in the world—in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Eurasia. In trying to maximize and diversify its energy supplies, China worries about being vulnerable to pressure from the United States which Chinese officials see as having an aggressive energy policy that can be used against Beijing.

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